Monetary analyst Jordi Visser’s Substack essay “Bitcoin’s Silent IPO” argues that Bitcoin’s sideways pattern displays the IPO stage. What does this imply?
abstract
- In response to Visser, Bitcoin just isn’t in a bear market as a result of the basics are good.
- He attributed the comparatively poor efficiency to Bitcoin’s ongoing redistribution of wealth. Early traders are cashing out (excessive liquidity made it doable) and new traders have gotten extra cautious.
- Visser mentioned such market developments are regular for corporations conducting IPOs, and that this isn’t a failure however reasonably a degree of maturity.
- Large tech shares went by way of a interval of consolidation within the two years following their IPOs. After that, costs began to rise. The identical factor might occur with Bitcoin.
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What’s “Bitcoin Silent IPO”?
Earlier than citing the Bitcoin IPO idea, Visser mentioned that the sentiment within the crypto market is “frankly merciless.” He factors out that whereas gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 are all hitting document or near-record costs, Bitcoin (BTC) is something however thrilling.
Hitting a document excessive of $126,000 on October sixth, Bitcoin costs have gone backwards and forwards amid sturdy ETF inflows, US regulatory help, and an absence of main damaging information.
Visser makes an attempt to elucidate why Bitcoin’s worth actions haven’t saved up with different dangerous property reminiscent of gold and main shares. He argues that regardless of its decentralized nature and revolutionary origins, Bitcoin continues to comply with well-known financial patterns. His foremost argument is that Bitcoin is ok, it simply “has a TradFi model of an IPO.”
Early traders take the danger and anticipate a reward if the enterprise is profitable. Finally, they search to comprehend income. “They want liquidity. They want an exit. They should diversify,” Visser wrote.
It is when conventional corporations maintain IPOs to reward founders and early traders whereas redistributing possession, which is an indication of maturity and success. “It isn’t a second of failure; it is a second of success. Corporations do not die throughout an IPO,” he says.
Visser added that whereas IPOs usually contain worth corrections, that does not imply the corporate is struggling. He in contrast Bitcoin’s present “underperformance” to that stage, noting that whereas Bitcoin’s lack of an IPO could confuse traders, that is regular as Bitcoin just isn’t an organization.
For years, Bitcoin moved in tandem with tech shares, however that correlation broke down in December 2024. Visser blames cautious new traders who “did not chase” whereas early traders quietly raised cash with out crashing the market.
The result’s a extra subdued and uneven worth motion that seems decoupled from sturdy fundamentals, which Visser says suggests Bitcoin just isn’t in a bear market.
learn extra: Clear buying and selling vary expands consolidation, BTC worth eyes $98,000
Mr. Visser explains the state of BTC worth in 2025 as follows:
“If this can be a macro-driven weak spot, Bitcoin will fall with threat property, reasonably than diverging from them. If this can be a true ‘crypto winter,’ we’ll see panic, capitulation, and correlated promoting throughout the area. As a substitute, we’re seeing a scientific, affected person sell-off in the direction of one thing extra tangible: a secure bid.”
Visser believes that the reactivation of many long-dormant Bitcoin wallets in 2025 helps his speculation. In response to CryptoQuant knowledge, 2025 marked the largest motion by inactive Bitcoin wallets in years. Visser argues that for the primary time in a very long time, early traders have sufficient market liquidity to promote their BTC holdings in massive portions.
He emphasizes that it is very important develop the distribution of Bitcoin, reasonably than specializing in a small variety of wallets as has been the case previously. Visser cited the instance of Galaxy Digital promoting $9 billion value of BTC to a single purchaser in August 2025.
Visser concludes that after the “IPO second,” BTC worth might rise considerably. He cites the examples of Amazon, Google, and Fb. All three tech giants went by way of a two-year consolidation interval after their respective IPOs earlier than rising.
Due to this fact, Visser believes that worth fluctuations will cease and affected person traders will reap the advantages.
Do individuals discover this text significant?
The article circulated on-line and acquired optimistic suggestions from readers. Though its details are based mostly on daring assumptions, many individuals praised the doc as well timed and insightful. One added that in contrast to tech shares, Bitcoin is a “finite asset” with a cap on whole provide.
Others famous that whereas the work was priceless, they disagreed with a number of the particulars. Some individuals disagree that 2025 is the 12 months Cypherpunk will promote (reasonably, those that invested in 2017-2018). Some level out that whales are unlikely to promote Bitcoin. Reasonably, they like to maintain accumulating extra Bitcoins.
I learn it properly. I doubt there are any OGs who clearly imagine that Bitcoin will promote for as little as 100,000 when its true objective remains to be in its infancy. What do you promote it for? For those who imagine in Bitcoin, there may be nothing to decentralize.
— Drew Thomas 🫡 🇺🇸 (@DrewThomas1985) November 2, 2025
DeFi market blogger Ignace joined X to unfold the phrase about Visser’s article, including that Ethereum and Solana are lagging behind and have but to “win” like Bitcoin. Their maturity stage is but to return.
He would not cowl alts, however I believe the explanation ETH, SOL, and different alts are lagging behind just isn’t solely as a result of they’re following BTC, however as a result of they aren’t beating it but.
Bitcoin has accomplished the proof stage and is transferring from hypothesis to establishment.
ETH just isn’t but thought-about for infrastructure (as a result of…)
— Ignatius DeFi (@DefiIgnas) November 3, 2025
Ryan Chow, co-founder of BTCFi platform Solv Protocol, factors out in a commentary for crypto.Information that Bitcoin’s “silent IPO” stage might flip it right into a yield-producing asset.
Bitcoin’s present consolidation is a pure a part of the market’s maturation. Just like the post-IPO lock-up interval in conventional markets, gradual redistribution from preliminary holders to a broader base will increase liquidity and stability. As international liquidity tightens and capital effectivity turns into a brand new premium, Bitcoin is experiencing the identical structural enlargement seen throughout all institutionalized asset lessons. Early holders are step by step distributing to a brand new era of allocators (asset managers, firms, sovereigns), creating deeper liquidity and a extra secure possession base.
This modification parallels the evolution of gold and shares after financialization, the place worth strikes from pure worth appreciation to productive deployment. For Bitcoin, meaning the emergence of a local yield market, a clear on-chain product that transforms BTC from a dormant asset to a reserve with collateralized yield. That is the place the following wave of adoption of income infrastructure constructed straight on high of Bitcoin will happen.
Typically, those that commented on a bit discovered Visser’s analogy convincing, however didn’t concentrate on the actual fact itself that analogies should not all the time dependable. Maybe one of many causes this text was so properly acquired is that it brings which means and hope at a time when Bitcoin market efficiency has dissatisfied and confused traders.
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