Vetr Lunde, head of analysis at crypto analysis agency K33 Analysis, has revealed a complete evaluation analyzing the long-debated declare that there’s a systematic sell-off at 10am within the Bitcoin market.
Lunde’s analysis, which examined greater than 606,000 minutes of information from January 1, 2025 to February 26, 2026, discovered that Bitcoin’s common return as of 10 a.m. ET is within the high quartile of strongest intraday time frames.
In accordance with the evaluation, Bitcoin’s common minute-to-minute return throughout the interval was roughly -0.003 foundation factors, whereas the common return at 10:00 was calculated to be 0.207 foundation factors. This efficiency makes 10:00 the 359th strongest hour of the day. In different phrases, 75% of the time throughout the research interval it carried out worse than at 10:00. Lunde argued that this information doesn’t assist the overall idea that systematic value declines happen at 10 o’clock.
The 10am systematic decline idea is predicated on the declare that Bitcoin usually declines, notably round 10am ET, which may very well be associated to market maker and ETF flows. Nonetheless, Lunde famous that intensive datasets “rapidly refute” this view.
In the meantime, the evaluation revealed that over a narrower interval (November 1, 2025 to February 26, 2026), the common return as of 10:00 dropped to -1.41 foundation factors. Throughout this era, 10:00 was the thirty fifth worst time of the day and throughout the weakest 2.36% vary. In 53.85% of the times studied, unfavorable returns have been noticed on the 10:00 minute, and in 12% of the minutes, the frequency of unfavorable returns was greater than at 10:00. Lunde acknowledged that 10 o’clock might seem as a “unfavorable outlier” in short-term samples, however stated this was not sufficient to straight point out market manipulation.
Moreover, when you study the time-frame round 10:00, the picture seems to be extra balanced. The typical return was -0.0033% between 09:55 and 10:05, +0.0017% between 09:50 and 10:10, and +0.0038% between 10:00 and 10:10. Losses remained pretty restricted within the broad 9:30-10:30 and 10:00-11:00 hours.
Runde additionally identified that it isn’t potential to evaluate the weakest interval by focusing solely on “spherical time.” From November 1, 2025 to February 26, 2026, the worst-performing occasions included “irregular” occasions equivalent to 10:12, 09:41, 17:13, 10:46, and 14:02. He argued that this was indicative of basic volatility dynamics related to US buying and selling hours, slightly than a selected time-focused operation.
One of many clearest outcomes of the evaluation is that Bitcoin volatility will increase considerably when the US market is open. Volatility particularly intensifies within the minutes main as much as the discharge of US macroeconomic information and the opening of the inventory market. The interval instantly following the opening of the US inventory market from 09:31 to 09:37 (ET) represents peak volatility. This reveals that the microstructure of the Bitcoin market is carefully associated to the US inventory market.
In conclusion, Lunde stated the info doesn’t present clear proof of intentional and systematic promoting at any specific time.
*This isn’t funding recommendation.
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