As of 8:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $110,300, and prediction markets had been buzzing with bets on whether or not the crypto heavyweight would preserve that place into November or hit new highs.
Polimarket November Stake
The favored forecasting platform PolymarketWhat’s going to the worth of Bitcoin be in November?”, merchants have guess a complete of over $1.2 million throughout outcomes.
Present favourite: 77% likelihood Bitcoin will rise above $115,000, with “sure” shares buying and selling at 77 cents. The percentages elevated by 5 proportion factors in a single day, indicating confidence that BTC will firmly preserve its present vary.
Present value of Bitcoin as of Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. Japanese Time.
Within the center bracket, the likelihood of Bitcoin clearing $125,000 is up 4% to 29%, whereas the likelihood of breaking $130,000 is slim at 14%. Merchants see a modest 7% likelihood of BTC reaching $135,000 and solely a 4% likelihood of it exceeding $140,000. A moonshot guess the place Bitcoin reaches $200,000 this month is handled as a protracted shot, with odds of 1% and whole quantity of simply $482,800.
For bears, the motion is even thinner. There’s a 34% likelihood that Bitcoin will fall beneath $100,000, however the odds drop sharply past that. There’s solely a 15% likelihood that will probably be lower than $95,000, and a ten% likelihood that will probably be lower than $90,000. Above $80,000, it is barely below 3%.
In different phrases, polymarket merchants are pricing in resilience, not capitulation.
Kalshi’s year-end forecast
On Karshi, a US prediction trade, merchants can title their markets as “How far will Bitcoin fall this 12 months?“A complete of roughly $5.76 million in trades is predicted, making it one of the energetic crypto markets in Karshi. With the median forecast hovering round $101,000, the likelihood of a serious failure is sort of stacked up.”
Kalsi’s odds recommend a 47% likelihood that Bitcoin will fall 2 factors this week and fall beneath $100,000. There’s solely a 20% likelihood of betting on a deeper decline beneath $90,000, whereas the likelihood is just 13% on the sub-$80,000 degree. Merchants see solely a 6% likelihood of BTC falling beneath $70,000, with excessive bearish outcomes beneath $60,000 or $50,000 priced in at 4% and three%, respectively.
Prediction market bets on Kalsi.
Basically, the Kalsi crowd sees a strong flooring forming shut to 6 figures. Each exchanges are dominated by bulls, with speculative vitality centered on whether or not Bitcoin cannot solely preserve however broaden its five-digit dominance in direction of the tip of this 12 months.
Between Polimarket’s short-term optimism and Kalsi’s long-term steady positioning, merchants appear assured that Bitcoin received’t make any new deep lows this cycle. The unfold of possibilities throughout each platforms suggests a risky however upward development in November, with the probably vary between $105,000 and $125,000.
Present information reveals Bitcoin merchants are betting on sustained power fairly than meteoric highs. With open curiosity and prediction market quantity reaching report ranges, sentiment has shifted from pondering “Is Bitcoin going to the moon?” “How lengthy are you able to preserve this power?”
FAQ
What do Polymarket merchants predict for Bitcoin in November?They offer Bitcoin a 77% likelihood of staying above $115,000, and the heavy quantity helps that end result.
How a lot cash is being staked on Polymarket’s Bitcoin market?A complete of greater than $1.2 million is unfold throughout November’s value outcomes.
What’s Kalshi’s prediction for the year-end low value of Bitcoin? Karshi merchants have pegged their forecast at $101,000, with solely a 47% likelihood that BTC will fall beneath $100,000.
Is Bitcoin anticipated to fall beneath $90,000 this 12 months? Karshi merchants put solely a 20% likelihood that Bitcoin will fall beneath $90,000 by the tip of the 12 months.
