Though Polymarket was based in 2020, it did not actually make its title recognized till November 2024, after the US presidential election. Nonetheless, 2025 introduced unprecedented development to crypto-native apps because the decentralized prediction market developed into a global info useful resource ceaselessly cited by the world’s high media retailers.
Simply 18 months in the past, Polymarket was in its fourth yr of existence and was processing volumes between $10 million and $30 million per week. Nonetheless, in November 2024, the platform shattered expectations, processing extra quantity in 5 days than in all of 2023.
By the best way, the prediction market’s quantity for 2023 was negligible, with some days buying and selling lower than $1 million.
Polymarket Quantity – DeFiLlama
Quick ahead to immediately, Polymarket routinely processes $500 million a day, main information retailers repeatedly cite its potential, and its founder, Shane Coplan, has been referred to as the world’s youngest self-made billionaire.
Regulatory advantages
The Trump administration in america has embraced prediction markets, with the president’s son Donald Trump Jr. investing in Polymarket and serving as a strategic advisor to regulated competitor Calci.
Moreover, President Trump himself has humorously referred to polymarket odds, or as he calls them, “poly polls,” in public speeches.
Along with the presidential household’s vested curiosity within the success of the prediction market subject, new regulatory modifications scheduled for 2026 additionally bode properly for prediction markets in comparison with conventional playing venues reminiscent of on-line sports activities betting.
In keeping with america’ One Massive Lovely Invoice, handed in July, gamblers’ loss deductions are capped at 90%, however prediction market merchants are topic to 100% of their losses being deductible in capital good points tax.
Though not explicitly mentioned, this modification may very well be a consider conventional betting providers like DraftKings coming into the prediction market area as they search to retain energy customers, the place that additional 10% is necessary.
In October, DraftKings introduced the acquisition of Railbird Prediction Markets and introduced that Polymarket Clearing would be the official clearing home for the upcoming DraftKings Prediction Markets division.
Outlook for 2026
Final yr’s prediction market competitors was primarily characterised by an ongoing, and sometimes disagreeable, competitors between Calci and Polymarket.
Competitors intensified after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) searched the house of Polymarket founder Shane Coplan in 2024. Days after the incident, it was revealed that members of Carsi’s workforce had paid influencers, together with former NFL Professional Bowler Antonio Brown, to slander Coplan on social media.
All through 2025, Calci and Polymarket will take turns revealing new VC funding and new partnerships, with their counterparts asserting strikingly related developments inside 48 to 72 hours.
However 2026 may very well be the yr Calci and Polymarket transfer away from their fledgling rivalry and lean extra into their very own person acquisition processes.
Polymarket is anticipated to formally launch within the US in 2026 after receiving operational approval from the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) in November, and the Polymarket US app is progressively rolling out restricted entry to US customers as of immediately.
There may be additionally rising hypothesis relating to Polymarket’s future crypto activations, particularly a local $POLY token and probably its personal Ethereum Layer 2 community.
In the meantime, Carsi is going through authorized bother in america after the state of Nevada, house to the playing capital of Las Vegas, filed a cease-and-desist order towards the state.
The choice got here after a U.S. district decide revoked a earlier seven-month injunction that had allowed Kalsi to function within the state. Nonetheless, it’s price noting that there isn’t any publicly out there info on whether or not the state plans to impose related restrictions on polymarkets.
Kalsi’s cryptocurrency integration plans stay unclear. The corporate is sponsoring a sequence of crypto-native influencers on X and is specializing in integrating stablecoins for on- and off-ramping. Nonetheless, prediction market knowledge, order books, and person base stay fully off-chain and gated by know-your-customer (KYC) restrictions.
Data offered by the corporate and its associates means that Kalsi could proceed to lean additional into the cryptocurrency area past simply person acquisition, however there aren’t any official statements confirming this presently.
