A Polymarket dealer made almost $1 million by making suspiciously correct bets on Google’s 2025 search rankings, sparking a heated debate about insider buying and selling in prediction markets.
Pockets deal with “0xafEe” (beforehand “AlphaRaccoon”) made almost $1 million in earnings by precisely predicting almost each end result within the Google Search Developments market.
Why the group doubts AlphaRaccoon
The dealer turned a $10,647 wager into almost $200,000 by shopping for d4vd’s “Sure” inventory, a 20-year-old singer who had solely a 0.2% likelihood of changing into essentially the most searched individual in 2025. The true cash got here from betting “no” on favorites like Pope Leo XIV, Bianca Censoli, and Donald Trump.
In line with meta-engineer Jeong Haeju, who uncovered the scenario on X, the dealer achieved successful charge of twenty-two out of 23 on Google search predictions. Public blockchain information reveals that the pockets deposited $3 million into Polymarket final Friday and instantly started inserting massive bets. The identical account beforehand received over $150,000 by accurately predicting the precise launch date of Gemini 3.0 Flash.
“This isn’t a fortunate streak. He beforehand made greater than $150,000 by predicting the early launch of Gemini 3.0 earlier than the outcomes have been out. It is clear at this level. He is a Google insider milking the polymarket for fast money,” Haeju mentioned.
Nevertheless, there isn’t any affirmation that this dealer is definitely a Google insider. This suspicion stays group hypothesis based mostly on the corporate’s uncommon profitable streak.
Insider buying and selling: function or bug?
The incident divided the cryptocurrency group. Some argue that prediction markets are designed particularly for insider buying and selling, making a monetary incentive to share privileged data with the market.
“The explanation prediction markets exist is insider buying and selling. Shares prohibit it, however predictions assist it. That is the way it’s designed,” mentioned X person WiiMee.
The controversy comes as Polymarket formally relaunched within the US this week with approval from the CFTC. The platform introduced Wednesday that its iOS app might be rolled out from the sports activities market to waitlisted customers.
Polymarket processed over $3.7 billion in buying and selling quantity in November 2025. The platform obtained a significant increase in October when NYSE guardian firm Intercontinental Change (ICE) invested as much as $2 billion, valuing Polymarket at about $9 billion. In line with current reviews, the corporate is presently searching for extra funding at a valuation of $12 billion.
Polymarket month-to-month quantity. Supply: Dune
Chief Advertising and marketing Officer Matthew Modaver confirmed that the platform will launch its native POLY token with an airdrop for customers, though not instantly.
“We might concern tokens each time we wished, however we would like them to have actual utility and longevity and exist without end,” Modaver mentioned.
The token launch is anticipated to happen in 2026, as soon as the US platform has stabilized.
For Polymarket, which got here underneath intense scrutiny over allegations of rigging in the course of the 2024 presidential election, the way it handles insider data might decide its regulatory future. The story of the Google search market serves as a check case for whether or not prediction markets are environment friendly data aggregators or insider revenue producing machines.
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