It is virtually unattainable to begin a dialog with Venezuelan dealer Alberto Cárdenas with out first asking, “What do you consider Bitcoin?” This was no exception.
His view of the digital asset market has at all times been astute, which has allowed him to foretell bearish or bullish actions previously.
Though he doesn’t have a crystal ball for clairvoyance or fortune-telling, the analyst believes that Bitcoin has not but deserted the four-year market cycle, 2026 can be a bearish yr, the alt season is now not what it was earlier than, and most significantly: Bitcoin’s all-time excessive (ATH) is anticipated to be up to date As early as November.
The one situation for the latter is that the U.S. Supreme Courtroom reverses all tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which might be a extreme blow to North American financial coverage.
“It’s doable that the courtroom may rule in opposition to the tariffs and block the entire difficulty. If that occurs, there may very well be a short-term affect of a weaker greenback as a result of the US must repay all of the tariffs it has imposed to this point. That may create a scenario that might set off value will increase for Bitcoin, gold, and property which can be negatively correlated with the greenback,” Cárdenas defined to CriptoNoticias.
What specialists acknowledge is that the market is within the following scenario. Leveling course of with bearish bias on account of decreased liquidity The macro surroundings can be not good.
He believes that when macroeconomic circumstances change, comparable to tariff points and the top of the U.S. authorities shutdown, there can be a bullish rebound for Bitcoin.
It should be remembered that on October sixth, Bitcoin reached its historic highest value, valued at $ 126,000 per unit, and this truth is reported by this writer. Nonetheless, the digital asset is presently struggling to remain under $100,000.
Bitcoin completes 4-year cycle and enters bear market
There are a number of opinions within the crypto ecosystem: If he Conventional 4-year Bitcoin cycle Terminated or nonetheless legitimate.
Those that now not think about it see that institutional funding and new rules, primarily from the US, have modified that, and that the “three-year bull and one-year bear” characterised by halvings is now not fulfilled. Cardenas is on the opposite facet.
This cycle has been achieved with nice precision previously, and if we perceive that stage of the cycle, we must always now be approaching the historic most. To me, given the cyclical variables and a bearish yr for BTC in 2026, I feel the market ceiling is close to. We have to put together for a troublesome 2026 for Bitcoin and it will likely be mounted.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
What it does guarantee is that once you take a look at the worldwide macroeconomic panorama, the present scenario is completely different from previous cycles. Relating to this level, he identified that: An important variable is that liquidity is just not considerable It occurred within the earlier cycle as properly.
“There’s international uncertainty proper now,” he stated. “There are vital questions in regards to the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration that went into impact in August. We do not know the way the financial system will react within the coming months.”
Relating to the alt-season, our interviewees are adamant that the alt-season is now not what it was once. His view is that there’s a rotation on the planet of cryptocurrencies that isn’t supported by liquidity.
“Proper now we’re seeing one thing just like the rise in ZCash, which is unimaginable, however an uneven and punctual rise in some currencies, however whereas we’re seeing weak spot in XRP, we’re seeing weak spot in different currencies. What’s there’s an inner rotation that normally occurs in virtually all markets.”
Commenting on the extended U.S. authorities shutdown, Cárdenas stated that though such conditions normally should not have a big effect available on the market, this time it has been longer than essential, so it’s essential to bear in mind components comparable to the shortage of transparency in official information.
Venezuelan inventory market and tokenization
Cárdenas was at all times considering Venezuela as a “laboratory” for digital currencies. It’s because, as this week’s editorial factors out, the nation has taken a number of paths on the planet of digital property lately: from regulation, adoption, and mining bans, to the creation of its personal token (Petro), to the present frenzy surrounding USDT, the Tether stablecoin.
Past this actuality, the dealer sees the nation doubtlessly beginning to interact within the tokenization of actual world property (RWA), which may open the door to an unprecedented market.
Actually, as he commented, the Caracas Inventory Change already has academic involvement with the Venezuelan Institute of Capital Markets.
“A course on tokenization was held lately, however the opportunity of a challenge of this kind has not but been confirmed. “I feel it is rather fascinating that, for instance, the Caracas Inventory Change is dedicated to noticeably understanding the difficulty of tokenization,” the analyst added.
Contemplating the worldwide development of digitizing actual property, monetary merchandise and even art work, Cárdenas stated: Rethink what you are promoting as this monetary enterprise house is probably going altering.
I feel the previous mannequin based mostly on transaction charges, as practiced by brokerages, is dying out. For my part, that’s ending and enterprise is changing into extra environment friendly. The enterprise wants to maneuver on to one thing else, perhaps storage, safety, perhaps consulting or one thing, however that previous buying and selling enterprise there isn’t any enterprise there anymore.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
When requested what areas Venezuela may think about tokenizing, he stated actual property is a “very fascinating space.”
“That may give fluidity and liquidity to an inherently illiquid market.”Different areas he sees potential embody the agro-industrial sector, commodities, inventories and shares in firms listed on the inventory market.
“The scope is big, however we at all times have to consider the constructive affect it may have on the nation. “If it offers liquidity and dynamism and in the end turns into a bridge to draw international funding.”
