Cryptocurrency analyst Christian Cifoy says: Bitcoin worth fluctuation 2022 We’re repeating the cycle sample, however solely in the wrong way. At the moment, America Federal Reserve System (FED) The speed hike precipitated a staggering 63% drop in BTC worth. Now, because the Fed prepares to finish quantitative tightening (QT), Tifoy believes the identical macro settings might push costs in the wrong way, marking the start of Bitcoin’s subsequent large rally.
Bitcoin worth reverses 2022 cycle sample
Chiffoi defined On November 2nd, X social media reported that Bitcoin’s actions appear to be reproducing 2022. macroeconomic atmosphere vice versa. He identified that again in March 2022, when the Fed first introduced aggressive rate of interest hikes, Bitcoin costs have been hovering round $46,000. Because the US central financial institution carried out its first two rate of interest hikes of fifty foundation factors and 75 foundation factors by June of the identical 12 months; BTC collapse It rises to $17,000, marking the technical backside of that cycle.
The market had already absorbed the shock because the Fed continued to lift charges from a complete of 175 bps to 550 bps. Chifoi revealed that Bitcoin has entered the world. accumulation stage The rally has begun regardless of different market consultants labeling the central financial institution’s actions “irresponsible” and sluggish.
Quick ahead to the current day, and Tifoy believes that cycle is reversing. Just lately with the FED Asserting the tip of quantitative tightening He predicts that the following three-month window might set off a powerful bullish rally by December. push bitcoin to the highest Slightly than the underside.
He cited late December to January 20, 2026 as a key interval to observe, suggesting that the crypto market might spike earlier than getting into a cooling part as liquidity returns to full capability.
Spikes in liquidity and repo indicators help the speculation
Supporting his evaluation, Chifoi referred to In a submit by one other analyst generally known as ‘ChurchOfTheCycle’, he shared an informative FRED chart exhibiting the inventory’s spike. In a single day repurchase settlement—Treasury securities briefly bought by the Fed in open market operations.
This graph from 2000 to 2025 highlights a sudden and important spike in repurchase transactions, suggesting a possible injection of liquidity into the monetary system. Analysts say this surge alone market crashTraditionally, such rallies have usually offered a short-term increase for shares and cryptocurrencies.
He additional identified that the Fed’s latest actions point out stress and disaster within the monetary system. Early phases of liquidity helpwhich might trigger speculative belongings to rise.
Based mostly on this, analysts predict that the market should fall. enter the parabolic part He’ll final from This autumn 2025 to Q1 2026 earlier than going through a significant crash in 2026, roughly six to 12 months after taking workplace on November 2nd. As a precaution, it warns merchants to watch credit score spreads, repo ranges and VIX correlations for early indicators of liquidity stress.
Featured picture created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
