Bitcoin (BTC) community hashrate has fallen 4% over the previous 30 days, the steepest decline in practically two years.
On the identical time, elevated volatility and falling costs spotlight rising stress amongst miners as earnings dwindle. However funding administration agency VanEck says miners’ capitulation might sign all-time low.
Bitcoin mining energy declines as worth hunch and Chinese language authorities shutdown hit community
VanEck’s mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report highlighted that the 4% drop in community hash energy was the most important since April 2024. This contraction comes amid a troublesome month for Bitcoin, with its worth dropping by about 9%.
Moreover, volatility has skyrocketed, with 30-day realized volatility exceeding 45%, the best degree since April 2025.
Matthew Siegel and Patrick Busch mentioned: “We usually count on charges to say no throughout important declines in Bitcoin costs.”
Moreover price-related pressures, Bitcoin’s hashrate was additionally affected by developments in China. Final week, BeInCrypto reported that round 400,000 machines have been compelled offline in China’s Xinjiang province.
This shutdown resulted in an estimated lack of 1.3 GW of capability and considerably impacted the community. China’s computing energy dropped by about 100 exahashes per second inside 24 hours.
“That is seemingly on account of a shift in energy technology to AI demand, which might lead to a lack of as much as 10% of the Bitcoin community’s hashing energy,” the analyst famous.
In the meantime, Bitcoin’s worth efficiency has additionally worsened the financial state of affairs for miners. In response to VanEck, the 2022 model of the Bitmain S19 XP miner’s break-even energy worth will lower from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025, representing a 36% drop. Siegel and Bush added:
“Whereas miner profitability has been poor these days, many corporations proceed to mine regardless of the financial downturn as a result of they imagine in the way forward for Bitcoin. We imagine as much as 13 nations are mining with central authorities assist to assist the long-term hash price of the Bitcoin community.”
Historic information suggests a bullish flip
Regardless of the latest strain, VanEck famous that the decline in hashrate may very well be a “bullish contrarian sign.” The report, primarily based on information since 2014, discovered that Bitcoin’s ahead returns are usually greater when the community hash price is shrinking.
BTC’s 90-day ahead return was roughly 65% constructive through the previous 30 days when the hash price was lowering, however 54% through the intervals when the hash price was rising.
Moreover, the typical 180-day ahead return was barely greater, at round 20.5% when hashrate was falling, in comparison with round 20.2% when hashrate was rising. This sample holds true over time as properly.
“Within the 346 days since 2014 when the 90-day hashrate progress price was detrimental, the 180-day ahead BTC return was constructive (77%) over that interval and the typical return was (+72%). Excluding nowadays, the 180-day ahead BTC return was constructive (~61%) over that interval and the typical return was (+48%),” the analyst revealed.
Technical patterns assist backside formation
On the technical aspect, market watchers have additionally outlined potential backside indicators. Market analysts, together with Ted Pillows, have recognized a three-day bullish divergence in Bitcoin, a sample that has signaled market bottoms the final two instances it has appeared.
“BTC 3D bullish divergence confirmed. The final two instances this occurred, Bitcoin shaped a backside,” Pirouz mentioned.
The three-day bullish divergence has change into fastened.
This cycle normally means a backside is in. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/se0rCjI8OG
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) December 22, 2025
It stays unclear whether or not Bitcoin will in the end rise additional. For now, main cryptocurrencies stay below strain. On the time of writing, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $88,066, down 1.01% prior to now 24 hours, based on information from BeInCrypto Markets.
The article “Bitcoin Hashrate Drops 4% Amid Miner Stress: What It Means for Value” was first printed on BeInCrypto.
