Bitcoin’s “realized market capitalization” is at an all-time excessive of $1.125 trillion, suggesting that BTC remains to be in a bull market regardless of an almost 40% drop in worth over the previous 10 weeks.
This on-chain metric, which values every Bitcoin at its final modified worth, emphasizes precise capital inflows slightly than speculative worth motion like market capitalization.
Regardless of just lately stalling within the $1.125 trillion area, the realized ceiling continues to rise after a 36% correction from October’s all-time excessive, in accordance with Glassnode knowledge. An identical pause was seen throughout the tariff tantrum in April 2025, when Bitcoin bottomed out round $76,000 and continued to make new highs.
Within the 2022 bear market, the realized cap dropped from about $470 billion to $385 billion as buyers capitulated and cash have been offered on a decrease price foundation, however we have not seen this sort of response up to now.
Questions stay in regards to the four-year cycle story
Andre Dragos, head of European analysis at Bitwise, instructed CoinDesk that Bitcoin may reverse the four-year cycle narrative and will see an upside shock in 2026. Dragosh pointed to resilient international progress mixed with continued rate of interest cuts to steepen the yield curve and broaden liquidity, all of which may weaken the U.S. greenback, an atmosphere that has traditionally been supportive of Bitcoin.
“For my part, regardless of indicators of a US recession and proof of a reacceleration of progress, Bitcoin stays effectively beneath the present macro atmosphere to the extent final seen throughout the COVID-19 recession and FTX collapse,” Dragosh mentioned.
