Based on Bitcoin analyst Willy Wu, it’s unlikely that Technique (MSTR) can be compelled to promote Bitcoin within the subsequent massive market downturn. Based on Saylor Tracker, Technique holds roughly 641,205 Bitcoins, a stake value roughly $64 billion at present costs.
Convertible bonds supply flexibility
Most of Technique’s debt is senior convertible bonds with rights established by the holder on September 15, 2027. Based mostly on Wu’s calculations, Technique would wish its inventory to commerce above $183 earlier than or after that date to keep away from promoting Bitcoin to fulfill the duty.
This inventory value degree is in keeping with the Bitcoin value of round $91,502, assuming a a number of web asset worth (mNAV) of 1. The corporate can settle the conversion with money, widespread inventory, or a mix of each, an possibility that provides administration respiration room throughout unstable markets.
Will MSTR be liquidated within the subsequent bear market? I doubt it,
That is their debt, the debt due date, and the worth that MSTR inventory must exceed to stop a partial liquidation of the BTC treasury to pay the debt. BTC equal value assumes mNAV 1.0 pic.twitter.com/AzVgecI7i2
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 4, 2025
Market developments put stress on the brief time period
Technique inventory fell almost 6.7% on the day, closing at a seven-month low of $246.99. Bitcoin was buying and selling at $102,004, down 9% over the previous seven days, in line with Coingecko knowledge.
Based mostly on the report, some market watchers say it could take a really lengthy and important decline for Technique to be compelled to promote Bitcoin. One analyst mentioned: For the corporate to liquidate, Bitcoin’s efficiency would wish to deteriorate considerably over an prolonged time frame. These phrases replicate the view that the corporate is remoted however not immune.
The chance of partial gross sales looms
Willy Woo added a warning. He urged {that a} partial sell-off may happen if Bitcoin doesn’t rise shortly throughout the anticipated 2028 bull market. Based on stories, this state of affairs won’t be brought on by only one unhealthy week, however by a gradual restoration and weaker strategic shares as debt comes due.
Different public forecasts stay rather more bullish. ARK Make investments’s Cathie Wooden and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have each said that their objective for BTC is $1 million by 2030.
BTCUSD buying and selling at $101,849 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Debt construction and sensible selections
Organising a convertible be aware means the corporate will not face an computerized margin name that will drive it to promote instantly. For the reason that conversion will be settled in shares, the stress shifts to MSTR’s inventory value quite than Bitcoin alone.
However that connection additionally ties the technique’s fortunes extra intently to buyers’ need for shares that mirror Bitcoin’s actions.
Quick-term drop, long-term check
The technique seems to be broadly protected against typical bear markets. Nonetheless, calculations present clear lower factors. Roughly $1 billion of debt is due on or earlier than the holder’s put date famous above.
If each Bitcoin and MSTR inventory underperform for an prolonged time frame, a correction could also be crucial. Main analysts at the moment say a liquidation is unlikely within the subsequent financial downturn, however warn that 2028 can be a vital 12 months for whether or not a sale can be crucial.
Featured photos from outdoors BozemanTradingView chart
